Mit diesem Algorithmus lässt sich mit einigem Erfolg vorhersagen, wer der Mörder ist. Näheres steht dort:
http://www.taylorherring.com/blog/index ... ties-code/
Hier auszugsweise einige bemerkenswerte Erkenntnisse:
Key Findings:
- The killer will be introduced within the first half of the book
- The killer is likely to be emotionally involved with the victim, most killers are spouses or blood relatives of their victim
- If there are a lot of land vehicles in the story, the killer is most likely female
- If there are a lot of nautical vehicles and aircraft in the story, the killer is most likely male
- If the victim is strangled, the killer is most likely male (or male with a female accomplice)
- If the setting is a country house, the killer is most likely female (75% chance)
- The language used throughout the book to describe a female killer is usually more negative than when describing a male killer
- Female killers are normally discovered due to a domestic item
- Male killers are normally found out through information or logic
- If Poirot is the detective, and the cause of death is stabbing, the killer will be mentioned more frequently at the beginning of the book
- If Miss Marple is the detective, and the motive for the murder is money/affair, the killer will be mentioned more in the later stages of the novel than the beginning.
Working out the Formula:
Relationship to the victim (=)
Dr. Bernthal’s research highlighted that the killer is likely to be emotionally involved with the victim; the most common relationship being a spouse or relative. Furthermore, if the killer’s victim is their spouse, the most probable motive will be love, whereas murders committed by blood relations are more varied in motive.
Primary means of transport associated with the novel (=)
According to Dr Jeannerod’s team, the novels which include a female killer are more likely to feature land vehicles (such as cars, vans, trucks), whereas novels with a male killer are more likely to involve nautical vehicles and aircraft (such as boats and planes).
The sentiment of the language used in association with the killer (=)
By using a sentiment analysis program called “Semantria”, Dr Jeannerod’s team found that in general, Christie uses more negative language to describe her female killers, whereas with male killers, she uses “higher levels of neutral or positive sentiment”. It was also found that in her later novels, Christie portrays her culprits in an overall more negative light.
Method of murder and the detective characterized in the novel (=)
Jeannerod’s team also found that if the victim is strangled, the killer is more likely to be male (or male with a female accomplice) and that there is a correlation between the killer being a doctor and the victim dying from either stabbing or strangulation. The results also suggest that if Poirot is the featured detective, and the cause of death is stabbing, it is extremely probable that the killer will be mentioned more frequently at the beginning of the book rather than in the concluding chapters. However, if the detective is Miss Marple, and the motive for the murder is money/affair, “the culprit will be mentioned more in the later stages of the novel than the beginning.”
Setting for the novel (=)
Dr. Bernthal’s research revealed that if the setting is a country house, there is a 75% chance that the killer will be female.
Chapter of introduction of the killer (=)
Bernthal also discovered that the murderer will be introduced within the first half of the novel, and almost always within the first 20% of the book.
Number of mentions of the killer ()
Furthermore, the later the book was published, the more the murderer will be mentioned throughout the novel according to Dr Jeannerod’s team. In fact, it was found that on average the culprit had 11.7 new mentions with every new novel. The findings also reveal that “there is a 27% chance that the culprit will be mentioned most in the first quarter of the novel, a 36.5% chance for the second quarter, an 18.5% chance in the third quarter, and an 18% chance for the fourth quarter.”
Es gibt also immer wieder einen trifftigen Grund, Christies Bücher erneut zu schmökern.
